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Work in progress

Abstract

This paper argues that the long run volatility of the price-dividend ratio is decisively driven by capital taxes. First, a new empirical fact is documented: capital taxes alone are able to explain up to 85% of the permanent increase in the long-run volatility observed since the mid 1990s in the United States. Second, the role of stochastic capital taxes is analysed in a consumption-based asset pricing model. In a standard Rational Expectations setup with stochastic taxes, tax volatility capitalizes into price volatility since taxes affect investor’s net cash-flows. However, this fundamental channel only gives rise to a transitory volatility response. Alternatively, a model in which rational investors face uncertainty about how fundamentals map into prices and learn about it brings up a new non-fundamental channel: taxes determine the elasticity of stock prices to investors beliefs. In this case, if a tax rate change is persistent, this second channel produces a persistent rise in volatility as the one observed. Third, different versions of the model are structurally estimated. The learning model quantitatively replicates a list of statistics made of traditional asset pricing facts as well as the new tax-volatility link. Remarkably, a high enough equity premium (along with a low and stable risk-free rate) is obtained with low risk aversion levels. Contrarily, the RE counterpart performs poorly in all the relevant dimensions.

2. Stabilizing the Stock Market with Capital Taxes (coming soon)

3. Decoupling in high-income countries: Green Growth or the Collapse of the Housing Bubble? with Marina Requena (coming soon)

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